Universe: Misha's 19,376 InsightX-decided tokens (safe-v2, pump-AMM pools created Sep 27 – Oct 26). Every token judged at +1h and +3h after pool creation, using only trades before that moment. Outcome: market cap fell ≥80% within the following 24h ("crashed").
Token charts: first 27h after pool creation; red line = decision time for that section (1h or 3h), grey dotted = the other checkpoint; dashed line = $50k.
In short
Most tokens are already dead at decision time: at 1h only 3,398 of 19,374 still trade with ≥$50k mcap and ≥20 wallets in the last 15 min; at 3h only 1,540. Detectors should judge only live tokens; flags on dead ones are noise.
Among live tokens, crashing is the norm (84% at 1h, 67% at 3h), so "crashed" is a weak test; a bot can still profit on them with a fast take-profit.
At 1h our same-wallet check adds real value: on live tokens it flags 386 that his fingerprint and InsightX both allow, and 100% of them crashed. It cuts nothing from M0_V2-pen0 at 1h.
At 3h his detectors already cover it: only 13 live tokens are ours-only.
InsightX >95% clustered as a hard gate would remove $6,153 of the $7,796 M0_V2-pen0 made. Use it as a feature, not a gate.
Suggested approach
Live guard first: judge only tokens with mcap ≥$50k and ≥20 wallets in the last 15 min.
Hard reject at 1h: his ladder fingerprint (first 60 min, his code) OR our same-wallet check (wallet overlap between the last two 15-min blocks >0.70) on live tokens. On all tokens this flags 2,447 (72% crashed) and keeps 36/40 of Misha's control ladders.
Re-check at 3h with his fingerprint (first 180 min).
InsightX clustering, repeat-wallet share, new-wallet share: pass to the entry meta model as features; no hard gate.
Cost on M0_V2-pen0: the 1h rule blocks 2 book tokens ($+1,428, all from his fingerprint: 54PK, k7yN); our same-wallet part blocks none.
Caveats: "crashed" is not a hand-checked ladder label (Misha's 40-case review is unlabelled). Dominant pool only. Book check is one week (Oct 11–18), in-sample for that book.
1. How often flagged tokens crashed
At 1h, all tokens
At 1h, live tokens only
At 3h, all tokens
At 3h, live tokens only
2. Who catches what: ours vs his full gate
1h, our raw same-wallets vs his
his flags
his allows
ours flags
1,064 67% crashed
455 86% crashed
ours allows
1,943 66% crashed
15,912 16% crashed
1h, our same-wallets (live) vs his
his flags
his allows
ours flags
634 87% crashed
386 100% crashed
ours allows
2,373 61% crashed
15,981 16% crashed
3h, our raw same-wallets vs his
his flags
his allows
ours flags
974 50% crashed
49 29% crashed
ours allows
1,914 28% crashed
16,438 9% crashed
3h, our same-wallets (live) vs his
his flags
his allows
ours flags
438 67% crashed
13 100% crashed
ours allows
2,450 30% crashed
16,474 9% crashed
3. Misha's 40 control ladders (his "ladder only" set)
1h
3h
His ladder fingerprint
34/40
39/40
His InsightX >95% clustered
0/40
0/40
Ours: same wallets (raw)
17/40
20/40
Ours: same wallets, live tokens only
10/40
11/40
RECOMMENDED: his fingerprint OR our same-wallets (live)
36/40
39/40
still live at decision
28/40
23/40
4. Cost on the profitable bot (M0_V2-pen0, run 190)
rule at 1h
book tokens blocked
book PnL removed (of $7,796)
tokens
His ladder fingerprint
2
$+1,428
54PK, k7yN
His InsightX >95% clustered
6
$+6,153
54PK, 5x6Q, CQCD, j1rt, k7yN, xpob
Ours: same wallets (raw)
1
$+11
k7yN
Ours: same wallets, live tokens only
0
$+0
RECOMMENDED: his fingerprint OR our same-wallets (live)
2
$+1,428
54PK, k7yN
Recommended + InsightX
6
$+6,153
54PK, 5x6Q, CQCD, j1rt, k7yN, xpob
rule at 3h
book tokens blocked
book PnL removed (of $7,796)
tokens
His ladder fingerprint
0
$+0
His InsightX >95% clustered
6
$+6,153
54PK, 5x6Q, CQCD, j1rt, k7yN, xpob
Ours: same wallets (raw)
3
$+1,635
5x6Q, j1rt, k7yN
Ours: same wallets, live tokens only
1
$+1,259
5x6Q
RECOMMENDED: his fingerprint OR our same-wallets (live)
1
$+1,259
5x6Q
Recommended + InsightX
6
$+6,153
54PK, 5x6Q, CQCD, j1rt, k7yN, xpob
5. The 49 tokens our raw 3h same-wallet check flagged and he allowed
Sorted by first-3h volume; 35 that had already crashed (≥80% below their pre-decision peak) before the 3h decision are labelled and shown last. Most were already dead at 3h, so the live guard removes them; 13 are live.
his fingerprint: allowInsightX (35%): allowour same-wallets: FLAGour 2-of-3: FLAGrecommended: allow
dead at decision (mcap $248,992, 11 wallets in last block) · same-wallet overlap 0.83 · repeat-wallet vol 95% · new wallets in last block 0% · fingerprint act 1.00 / path15 0.06 / absr 0.0107 · crashed ≥80% within 24h after decision: yes
his fingerprint: allowInsightX (63%): allowour same-wallets: FLAGour 2-of-3: FLAGrecommended: allow
dead at decision (mcap $653, 3115 wallets in last block) · same-wallet overlap 0.85 · repeat-wallet vol 98% · new wallets in last block 1% · fingerprint act 0.91 / path15 -0.37 / absr 0.0180 · crashed ≥80% within 24h after decision: no
his fingerprint: allowInsightX (31%): allowour same-wallets: FLAGour 2-of-3: FLAGrecommended: allow
dead at decision (mcap $266, 2162 wallets in last block) · same-wallet overlap 0.72 · repeat-wallet vol 71% · new wallets in last block 1% · fingerprint act 0.94 / path15 -0.76 / absr 0.0388 · crashed ≥80% within 24h after decision: no
his fingerprint: allowInsightX (0%): allowour same-wallets: FLAGour 2-of-3: FLAGrecommended: allow
dead at decision (mcap $141, 1 wallets in last block) · same-wallet overlap 1.00 · repeat-wallet vol 0% · new wallets in last block 0% · fingerprint act 0.19 / path15 -0.98 / absr 0.0817 · crashed ≥80% within 24h after decision: no
his fingerprint: allowInsightX (0%): allowour same-wallets: FLAGour 2-of-3: FLAGrecommended: allow
dead at decision (mcap $345, 1 wallets in last block) · same-wallet overlap 1.00 · repeat-wallet vol 0% · new wallets in last block 0% · fingerprint act 0.16 / path15 -1.00 / absr 0.0116 · crashed ≥80% within 24h after decision: no
his fingerprint: allowInsightX (1%): allowour same-wallets: FLAGour 2-of-3: FLAGrecommended: allow
dead at decision (mcap $266, 1 wallets in last block) · same-wallet overlap 1.00 · repeat-wallet vol 1% · new wallets in last block 0% · fingerprint act 0.15 / path15 -0.99 / absr 0.0405 · crashed ≥80% within 24h after decision: no
his fingerprint: allowInsightX (0%): allowour same-wallets: FLAGour 2-of-3: FLAGrecommended: allow
dead at decision (mcap $202, 2 wallets in last block) · same-wallet overlap 1.00 · repeat-wallet vol 21% · new wallets in last block 0% · fingerprint act 0.33 / path15 -0.98 / absr 0.1006 · crashed ≥80% within 24h after decision: no
his fingerprint: allowInsightX (0%): allowour same-wallets: FLAGour 2-of-3: FLAGrecommended: allow
dead at decision (mcap $203, 1 wallets in last block) · same-wallet overlap 1.00 · repeat-wallet vol 0% · new wallets in last block 0% · fingerprint act nan / path15 nan / absr nan · crashed ≥80% within 24h after decision: no
his fingerprint: allowInsightX (0%): allowour same-wallets: FLAGour 2-of-3: FLAGrecommended: allow
dead at decision (mcap $1,220, 1 wallets in last block) · same-wallet overlap 1.00 · repeat-wallet vol 0% · new wallets in last block 0% · fingerprint act 0.18 / path15 -0.86 / absr 0.0090 · crashed ≥80% within 24h after decision: no
his fingerprint: allowInsightX (0%): allowour same-wallets: FLAGour 2-of-3: FLAGrecommended: allow
dead at decision (mcap $51, 1 wallets in last block) · same-wallet overlap 1.00 · repeat-wallet vol 95% · new wallets in last block 0% · fingerprint act 0.45 / path15 -0.72 / absr 0.0387 · crashed ≥80% within 24h after decision: no
his fingerprint: allowInsightX (43%): allowour same-wallets: FLAGour 2-of-3: FLAGrecommended: allow
dead at decision (mcap $59, 1 wallets in last block) · same-wallet overlap 1.00 · repeat-wallet vol 54% · new wallets in last block 0% · fingerprint act 0.46 / path15 -0.72 / absr 0.0218 · crashed ≥80% within 24h after decision: no
his fingerprint: allowInsightX (44%): allowour same-wallets: FLAGour 2-of-3: FLAGrecommended: allow
dead at decision (mcap $68, 1 wallets in last block) · same-wallet overlap 1.00 · repeat-wallet vol 57% · new wallets in last block 0% · fingerprint act 0.42 / path15 -0.76 / absr 0.0210 · crashed ≥80% within 24h after decision: no
his fingerprint: allowInsightX (0%): allowour same-wallets: FLAGour 2-of-3: FLAGrecommended: allow
dead at decision (mcap $265, 1 wallets in last block) · same-wallet overlap 1.00 · repeat-wallet vol 0% · new wallets in last block 0% · fingerprint act nan / path15 nan / absr nan · crashed ≥80% within 24h after decision: no
his fingerprint: allowInsightX (56%): allowour same-wallets: FLAGour 2-of-3: FLAGrecommended: allow
dead at decision (mcap $55, 2158 wallets in last block) · same-wallet overlap 0.99 · repeat-wallet vol 99% · new wallets in last block 0% · fingerprint act 0.83 / path15 -0.61 / absr 0.0219 · crashed ≥80% within 24h after decision: no
his fingerprint: allowInsightX (43%): allowour same-wallets: FLAGour 2-of-3: FLAGrecommended: allow
dead at decision (mcap $55, 1 wallets in last block) · same-wallet overlap 1.00 · repeat-wallet vol 50% · new wallets in last block 0% · fingerprint act 0.38 / path15 -0.69 / absr 0.0322 · crashed ≥80% within 24h after decision: no
his fingerprint: allowInsightX (0%): allowour same-wallets: FLAGour 2-of-3: FLAGrecommended: allow
dead at decision (mcap $249, 1 wallets in last block) · same-wallet overlap 1.00 · repeat-wallet vol 0% · new wallets in last block 0% · fingerprint act nan / path15 nan / absr nan · crashed ≥80% within 24h after decision: no
his fingerprint: allowInsightX (82%): allowour same-wallets: FLAGour 2-of-3: FLAGrecommended: allow
dead at decision (mcap $39, 1 wallets in last block) · same-wallet overlap 1.00 · repeat-wallet vol 93% · new wallets in last block 0% · fingerprint act 0.36 / path15 -0.86 / absr 0.0301 · crashed ≥80% within 24h after decision: no
his fingerprint: allowInsightX (0%): allowour same-wallets: FLAGour 2-of-3: FLAGrecommended: allow
dead at decision (mcap $224, 1 wallets in last block) · same-wallet overlap 1.00 · repeat-wallet vol 0% · new wallets in last block 0% · fingerprint act nan / path15 nan / absr nan · crashed ≥80% within 24h after decision: no
his fingerprint: allowInsightX (88%): allowour same-wallets: FLAGour 2-of-3: FLAGrecommended: allow
dead at decision (mcap $46, 1 wallets in last block) · same-wallet overlap 1.00 · repeat-wallet vol 84% · new wallets in last block 0% · fingerprint act 0.43 / path15 -0.69 / absr 0.0226 · crashed ≥80% within 24h after decision: no
his fingerprint: allowInsightX (94%): allowour same-wallets: FLAGour 2-of-3: FLAGrecommended: allow
dead at decision (mcap $46, 2144 wallets in last block) · same-wallet overlap 0.90 · repeat-wallet vol 99% · new wallets in last block 0% · fingerprint act 0.80 / path15 -0.70 / absr 0.0098 · crashed ≥80% within 24h after decision: no
his fingerprint: allowInsightX (46%): allowour same-wallets: FLAGour 2-of-3: FLAGrecommended: allow
dead at decision (mcap $75, 1 wallets in last block) · same-wallet overlap 1.00 · repeat-wallet vol 92% · new wallets in last block 0% · fingerprint act 0.41 / path15 -0.65 / absr 0.0311 · crashed ≥80% within 24h after decision: no
his fingerprint: allowInsightX (0%): allowour same-wallets: FLAGour 2-of-3: FLAGrecommended: allow
dead at decision (mcap $36, 1 wallets in last block) · same-wallet overlap 1.00 · repeat-wallet vol 51% · new wallets in last block 0% · fingerprint act 0.30 / path15 -0.84 / absr 0.0242 · crashed ≥80% within 24h after decision: no
his fingerprint: allowInsightX (2%): allowour same-wallets: FLAGour 2-of-3: FLAGrecommended: allow
dead at decision (mcap $56, 1 wallets in last block) · same-wallet overlap 1.00 · repeat-wallet vol 66% · new wallets in last block 0% · fingerprint act 0.25 / path15 -0.72 / absr 0.0471 · crashed ≥80% within 24h after decision: no
his fingerprint: allowInsightX (0%): allowour same-wallets: FLAGour 2-of-3: FLAGrecommended: allow
dead at decision (mcap $93, 1 wallets in last block) · same-wallet overlap 1.00 · repeat-wallet vol 0% · new wallets in last block 0% · fingerprint act nan / path15 nan / absr nan · crashed ≥80% within 24h after decision: no
his fingerprint: allowInsightX (0%): allowour same-wallets: FLAGour 2-of-3: FLAGrecommended: allow
dead at decision (mcap $312, 1 wallets in last block) · same-wallet overlap 1.00 · repeat-wallet vol 0% · new wallets in last block 0% · fingerprint act nan / path15 nan / absr nan · crashed ≥80% within 24h after decision: no
his fingerprint: allowInsightX (0%): allowour same-wallets: FLAGour 2-of-3: FLAGrecommended: allow
dead at decision (mcap $31, 1 wallets in last block) · same-wallet overlap 1.00 · repeat-wallet vol 46% · new wallets in last block 0% · fingerprint act 0.18 / path15 -0.92 / absr 0.0205 · crashed ≥80% within 24h after decision: no
his fingerprint: allowInsightX (0%): allowour same-wallets: FLAGour 2-of-3: FLAGrecommended: allow
dead at decision (mcap $36, 1 wallets in last block) · same-wallet overlap 1.00 · repeat-wallet vol 0% · new wallets in last block 0% · fingerprint act nan / path15 nan / absr nan · crashed ≥80% within 24h after decision: no
his fingerprint: allowInsightX (0%): allowour same-wallets: FLAGour 2-of-3: FLAGrecommended: allow
dead at decision (mcap $79, 1 wallets in last block) · same-wallet overlap 1.00 · repeat-wallet vol 0% · new wallets in last block 0% · fingerprint act nan / path15 nan / absr nan · crashed ≥80% within 24h after decision: no
his fingerprint: allowInsightX (0%): allowour same-wallets: FLAGour 2-of-3: FLAGrecommended: allow
dead at decision (mcap $37, 1 wallets in last block) · same-wallet overlap 1.00 · repeat-wallet vol 0% · new wallets in last block 0% · fingerprint act nan / path15 nan / absr nan · crashed ≥80% within 24h after decision: no
his fingerprint: allowInsightX (59%): allowour same-wallets: FLAGour 2-of-3: FLAGrecommended: allow
dead at decision (mcap $109, 500 wallets in last block) · same-wallet overlap 1.00 · repeat-wallet vol 2% · new wallets in last block 0% · fingerprint act 0.89 / path15 -0.83 / absr 0.0059 · crashed ≥80% within 24h after decision: no
his fingerprint: allowInsightX (0%): allowour same-wallets: FLAGour 2-of-3: FLAGrecommended: allow
dead at decision (mcap $22, 1 wallets in last block) · same-wallet overlap 1.00 · repeat-wallet vol 0% · new wallets in last block 0% · fingerprint act nan / path15 nan / absr nan · crashed ≥80% within 24h after decision: no
his fingerprint: allowInsightX (0%): allowour same-wallets: FLAGour 2-of-3: FLAGrecommended: allow
dead at decision (mcap $213, 1 wallets in last block) · same-wallet overlap 1.00 · repeat-wallet vol 2% · new wallets in last block 0% · fingerprint act 0.23 / path15 -0.84 / absr 0.0346 · crashed ≥80% within 24h after decision: no
his fingerprint: allowInsightX (0%): allowour same-wallets: FLAGour 2-of-3: FLAGrecommended: allow
dead at decision (mcap $36, 1 wallets in last block) · same-wallet overlap 1.00 · repeat-wallet vol 0% · new wallets in last block 0% · fingerprint act nan / path15 nan / absr nan · crashed ≥80% within 24h after decision: no
his fingerprint: allowInsightX (1%): allowour same-wallets: FLAGour 2-of-3: FLAGrecommended: allow
dead at decision (mcap $34, 1 wallets in last block) · same-wallet overlap 1.00 · repeat-wallet vol 0% · new wallets in last block 0% · fingerprint act nan / path15 nan / absr nan · crashed ≥80% within 24h after decision: no
his fingerprint: allowInsightX (71%): allowour same-wallets: FLAGour 2-of-3: FLAGrecommended: allow
dead at decision (mcap $73, 1 wallets in last block) · same-wallet overlap 1.00 · repeat-wallet vol 0% · new wallets in last block 0% · fingerprint act nan / path15 nan / absr nan · crashed ≥80% within 24h after decision: no
his fingerprint: allowInsightX (2%): allowour same-wallets: FLAGour 2-of-3: FLAGrecommended: allow
dead at decision (mcap $39, 1 wallets in last block) · same-wallet overlap 1.00 · repeat-wallet vol 0% · new wallets in last block 0% · fingerprint act nan / path15 nan / absr nan · crashed ≥80% within 24h after decision: no
6. 1h: live tokens our same-wallet check flags and he allows (15 random of 386; 2 crashed before decision, shown last)
his fingerprint: allowInsightX (100%): FLAGour same-wallets: allowour 2-of-3: allowrecommended: allow
dead at decision (mcap $3,757,724, 7 wallets in last block) · same-wallet overlap 0.30 · repeat-wallet vol 9% · new wallets in last block 57% · fingerprint act 1.00 / path15 0.45 / absr 0.0003 · crashed ≥80% within 24h after decision: no · M0_V2-pen0 PnL $+365
his fingerprint: FLAGInsightX (98%): FLAGour same-wallets: FLAGour 2-of-3: FLAGrecommended: FLAG
dead at decision (mcap $4,709,074, 5 wallets in last block) · same-wallet overlap 0.83 · repeat-wallet vol 8% · new wallets in last block 0% · fingerprint act 1.00 / path15 1.00 / absr 0.0005 · crashed ≥80% within 24h after decision: no · M0_V2-pen0 PnL $+11
